How to Predict a Company's Future

From Science Daily:

"The answer lies in the words of the CEO," said Rajesh Chandy, professor of marketing at the university's Carlson School of Management. "By simply counting the number of future oriented sentences in annual reports we can predict future innovation by the firm."

In the paper "Managing the Future: CEO Attention and Innovation Outcomes," forthcoming in the Journal of Marketing, Chandy and co-authors Manjit Yadav of Texas A&M University and Jaideep Prabhu of Imperial College, London University, show that CEOs who focus their attention on future events, as well as external activities, lead their firms to earlier adoption and invention of new technologies and greater and faster development of innovations. In contrast, more attention to internal operations leads to slower detection, adoption and implementation of new technologies.

Chandy and his co-authors studied empirical data collected from the online banking industry over eight years to determine innovation outcomes such as speed of detection, speed of development and the breadth of deployment of technology.

Unfortunately, the paper has yet to be released so I can't pick it apart. My question is whether the online banking industry is a good proxy for all industries. It does seem that it's a good choice when looking at entrenched industries. Startups, of course, are focused completely on innovation, so the study is not very relevant in regards to them.

If you predicted the future of a startup based on what the CEO says publicly, then every company in the Valley would be the next Google. Except mine, we're the next Oracle. Because I'm short and greedy and to quote Mark Zuckerberg, "I'm the CEO, be-yotch!"

How to REALLY Negotiate a Term Sheet: Venture Hacks

I love the Internet. Really smart people with direct experience of issues offer free advice to anyone who cares to read their blog. A couple of experienced entrepreneurs recently started a blog called Venture Hacks. The first few posts are about the strategy surrounding board seats. Honestly, I hadn't given board composition any serious thought, so their posts were a wakeup call.

An excerpt:

Whether you negotiate a proportional or investor-leaning board, your term sheet will probably state that the CEO of the company must fill one of the common board seats. This may seem reasonable. One of the founders is probably the CEO and you were going to elect him to the board anyway.

Don’t accept this term. The investors are looking several moves ahead of you.

The CEO Playbook: Smile Through the Mild Discomfort

I spent the week at the GDC, sucking up information, schmoozing, and stalking the competition. As a result, I slept about 4-5 hours a night. Friday morning, I woke up, feeling dead tired and as I trudged down the street in misery, I wished it was all over. And then I thought of Julius Caesar.

A glimmer of something I read his account of the war in Gaul, "The Gallic War". Something about the standing in a muddy battlefield at dawn after a sleepless night. Just an image. I haven't read the book since junior high, so my memory is pretty faulty.

Anyway, in comparison to Caesar's travails, I realized that it was stupid for me to think that I should even conceive of a conference full of smart, interesting people, free food, and relatively comfy chairs should somehow be an ordeal. I'm actually kinda of ashamed of even thinking that way.

The thing is, if you're going to be the leader, you got to suck it up, drink the kool-aid, and put a big smile on your face. And you have to do it every day. Despite however your body may feel.

It should be easy for you. You probably have a nice bed, in a nice apartment. Money to pay for food and coffee. Tons of friends and business acquaintances. Probably even enough leisure time to play Orcs and Elves on your cellphone, or catch an episode of Lost on your Tivo.

Even more: you have an opportunity to pursue your dream. People may have already given you money to do so. That's mind-boggling. Other people give you money to pursue YOUR dream. How can you not see how lucky you are?

I can. I sometimes forget, but I think I'll go out today and pick up a copy of The Gallic War just to remind myself how easy I have it. Hopefully, the coffee at Borders won't be too acidic this afternoon, I don't think I could handle any more suffering.

CEO Playbook: If You Want Something, Ask for It

Sometimes, I think the greatest advice I ever heard was, "Never get involved in a land war in Asia", but then I realize no, it's actually this advice: "It never hurts to ask." Sure, it may hurt your pride, but if you have that kinda of pride that then you have deeper issues you better get worked out.

I've made it a habit over the last couple years, that whenever someone, usually salespeople, tell me they don't have any more tickets, Wiis, or monkey brains; I will then ask them if there is any other way I can see the show, find a Wii, or gnaw on delicious monkey brain. Turns out, there usual is.

People like to help other people. By asking someone for help, that person become involved in your problem. They want to find a solution for you. And since they are often the gatekeeper between you and the thing you want, their help is necessary. Sometimes, in fact, they bend the rules, just to help you get what you want. Why? Just because you asked. Crazy, eh?

Anyway, here's the context of this post. John and I wanted to get into the Game Developer's Conference 2007 because Tenuki is, on one level, a games company. The cost of a pass to the meatiest parts of the conference is $1675, if you bought ahead of time. We didn't. So we were looking at paying $1850 each to attend the conference. That's a lot of money for an early-stage startup.

So naturally, I started asking people how I could get into the conference for free. Okay, the truth is that I went around begging for passes, but someone on a mailing list advised me to check out the GDC Conference Associates (volunteer) program. The program stopped taking applications in January, but I figured I'd email the manager of the program and see if they had any last minute dropouts that needed to be replaced. They did, but I guess you figured that or I wouldn't be telling this story.

Now, I'm going to the GDC for free, well actually in exchange for 20 hours of volunteer labor, but the point is, had I not asked, I would be not be attending the biggest games industry conference of the year. And now, I am.

So there you have it folks, the power of asking for what you want.

Now, I'm going to ask all of you a favor, tell anyone you know who might be interested in startups, games, techie garbage, or humorous stories about my night with Britney Spears (a razor was involved) to check out my blog. Then force them to subscribe by offering food, coffee, or monkey brains. That's what usually works for me.